STORYLINES
WEEK 8 FALLOUT
ESU and Shepherd had two different Saturdays last weekend, with the Warriors blowing out Shippensburg on the road while the Rams fell to Bloomsburg at home. Shepherd, which was 5-1 entering the game with its only loss being to Kutztown, was receiving votes in the American Football Coaches Association (AFCA) Division II Poll before dropping its game to Bloomsburg. The Rams were previously the first team outside of the Top 25, but have now dropped to the last team receiving votes. Meanwhile, ESU has jumped up to become the fifth team outside the Top 25, leaping the Rams after reappearing last week. The Warriors’ dominance during their four-game winning streak has vaulted them up the NCAA statistical rankings in terms of total yardage and scoring output on both sides of the ball, holding top-35 marks in all four categories. The NPI rankings that were released this week also show a gap between the two teams that favors ESU. The Warriors came in ranking third in Super Region 1 and 15th overall, while Shepherd is 11th regionally and 50th overall. This Saturday’s game could have major ramifications on either team’s postseason aspirations heading into the final four weeks.
SANK THE SHIP
After a more methodical and controlling win at Bloomsburg the week before, the Warriors displayed their ability to strike quickly and run away with a game against Shippensburg last week. ESU was shut out in the first quarter — just the third period all season they’ve been kept off the scoreboard — but exploded for a 28-point second quarter with four offensive touchdowns. That was the first time since 2023 that the Warriors’ offense found the end zone four times in a quarter, as ESU ran away even further in the second half to win 47-7. The Warriors finished with a season-high 277 passing yards with 192 rushing yards. Even though it was ESU’s first time finishing below 240 rushing yards in a game, their output would still be greater than the average rushing offense of all but 34 teams in Division II.
STRONG CONNECTION
Junior QB Matt Machalik led the charge on offense, going 13-for-16 with 225 yards and four touchdowns in just under two quarters of action. His career day coincided with fifth-year WR Elijah Ford’s, who posted his first 100-yard game in college on seven receptions with a touchdown. Machalik connected with Ford in his ESU debut four weeks ago for his first career touchdown pass against Lackawanna, as the two have quickly established chemistry as Machalik’s been worked into the game plan.
PROGRAM FIRSTS
Following his breakout performance against the Raiders, the PSAC announced Machalik as the East Offensive Athlete of the Week. The honor marked a pair of firsts in ESU Football history. For one, this is the first year that ESU has had four different players be named a PSAC Athlete of the Week. Senior K Ty Quintois started the season by earning special teams honors; senior RB Ajani Walker was named the top offensive player in the division in the Warriors’ first conference game; and senior LB Mason Smith was dubbed the top defensive player after returning a fumble for a touchdown. Secondly, with Walker, Smith, and Machalik winning awards in three straight weeks, it’s the first time ESU has had three different athletes win a weekly award consecutively.
NO FLY ZONE
ESU’s secondary entered last week facing a hot passing offense, and by the end of the game, they completely neutralized Shippensburg’s attack through the air. QB Roman Jensen was coming off being named PSAC East Athlete of the Week, and WR Chris Adegunle was averaging over six receptions and 87 yards per game. Jensen was held to his second-lowest output of the season, and Adegunle was kept completely shut out. Junior Harold Hill IV, sophomores Leyden Hertz and Cam Jefferson, and fifth-year Everette Dingle led the charge in quieting the Raiders’ passing offense, as ESU has only allowed an average of 128.0 YPG.
WINNING IN THE TRENCHES
ESU has had some stout performances in stopping the run over the last month, stuffing lanes up front and getting into the backfield consistently. The Raiders mustered 31 yards on 29 carries last week, bringing opponents' rushing averages across the last four games down to 52.0 YPG and 1.9 YPC. The Warriors have had at least five tackles for loss each time and have totaled 37, including eight sacks. Junior LB Camerin Gross has had a breakout year as he leads the team with 46 tackles and 9.5 tackles for loss, and senior DL Ashton Blose has come on as of late, entering this week with 36 tackles, 7.0 tackles for loss, and 2.5 sacks.
LAST YEAR’S MATCHUP
The two teams met at this time last year, though they played at Shepherd, with the Rams coming out on top. Senior QB Harrison Susi came in his first significant run under center for ESU, nearly leading a fourth-quarter comeback. The Rams jumped out to a 19-0 lead, and despite the Warriors scoring 23 points in the final frame, held on to win 26-23. Susi accounted for 216 yards of total offense and three touchdowns, and Blose had a standout day with 11 tackles plus a forced fumble he recovered. Michael Hardyway, Shepherd’s projected QB this week, completed 16-of-24 passes for 179 yards and a pair of touchdowns, while Jordan Barnett and Grant Swinehart ran for 220 yards.
REELING OFF A LOSS
Shepherd is coming off its second loss of the season, both in conference play, to Bloomsburg last week. The Rams hosted the Huskies for their Homecoming game, falling 27-21 after Bloomsburg scored 10 unanswered points in the fourth quarter. Shepherd trailed 17-14 at halftime, but took the lead late in the third quarter off an 85-yard touchdown return on a blocked field goal. However, the Rams’ offense was shut out by Bloomsburg, as the Huskies ground down the clock with 201 rushing yards and converted 13-of-20 third-down attempts. Hardyway had a 50-yard touchdown early in the game, but was 15-of-24 for 125 yards with two interceptions outside of that, and Shepherd was held to 37 rushing yards on only nine attempts.
RAMS TO WATCH
QB Michael Hardyway has started all seven games for the Rams, averaging 189.6 YPG with a 15-4 TD-INT ratio. Hardyway has cleared 200 yards through the air twice this year, doing so against Gannon in Week 2 and Millersville three weeks ago. RB Ian Mauldin leads the way for Shepherd on the ground with 425 yards, averaging 85.0 per game and 6.5 per carry. The Warriors’ secondary will have another challenge in stopping WR Daryl Harper, Shepherd’s top receiver. Harper totaled seven touchdowns from Weeks 2-5, which are tied for the second-most in the PSAC. Defensively, DB D’Myo Harper is a turnover and special teams threat. Harper has one punt return touchdown this year already, earning PSAC East Special Teams Athlete of the Week in Week 1, has picked off two passes, and forced a fumble. His 44 tackles and 5.0 tackles for loss lead the team as well. DB Reggie Snowden is another ball-hawking player in Shepherd’s secondary, leading the conference with four interceptions. The Rams only have two players with more than 1.0 sack, which are DL Vince Flook with 3.0, and LB Malachi Barnes with 2.5.
BATTLE ON THE MARGINS
This week’s game features the two best punters in the PSAC East with ESU’s Adam Noll and Shepherd’s Daishaun Alexander. Alexander and Noll were the First and Second Team punters on last year’s All-PSAC East squads, respectively, and both are still at the top of the leaderboard in terms of yards per punt. Alexander leads the PSAC with 45.9 yards per punt, with just under half of his attempts getting downed inside the 20-yard line and 44.4% of his punts going 50-plus yards. Noll hasn’t been called on as much as of late, but is still averaging 44.7 yards per attempt, with five of his 19 punts pinning the opponent deep and five also traveling over 50 yards.
ESU VS. SHEPHERD: STATISTICAL RANKINGS
The Warriors have been on a steady climb in about every major category over the last four weeks, with their rushing offense remaining in the top 10 in Division II after a down game in yards for their own standards. After throwing for 277 yards as a team last week, their passing average of 161.6 YPG bumped them up to 132nd in the country. On the other side of the ball, the Warriors are 26th against the run and 45th against the pass, but their turnover margin of an even +1.0 is 10th-best in Division II. For Shepherd, they generate more of their offense through the air than on the ground. The Rams average 193.9 passing yards per game, 92nd in Division II, and gain 141.0 YPG through the run, 86th in Division II. Shepherd’s 27th-ranked total defense of 291.7 yards allowed per game, which is one spot behind ESU’s unit, ranks 33rd against the pass and 36th in stopping the run. Both defenses have situational strengths and weaknesses, as the Warriors’ have done better at getting off the field on third down rather than keeping teams out of the end zone when they get in the red zone, and the Rams are vice versa. In terms of scoring, ESU ranks 24th in PPG and PPG against, outscoring their opponents by an average of 19.0 points, while Shepherd is 64th with 29.9 PPG and 19.6 PPG allowed.
